Trade, Wait or Skip Under Uncertainty

Captain · CP06: Flight Test · About 30–40 minutes, plus the assigned practical work

Safety rule: A critical risk or evidence breach cannot be excused by profit, confidence or a high multiple-choice score.

Your mission today

By the end you can make a timed trade, wait or skip decision and cite the exact rule without seeing later prices.

Before you start

Bring your frozen Captain strategy card, signed demo risk charter, full journal and original source screenshots. The assessment and any pass criteria below are draft proposals requiring instructor approval. No grading, rank award or certification is active.

1. Understand what is being tested

Realistic exam cards mix attractive candles with incomplete triggers, expired session windows, stale quotes, spread spikes and valid candidates. Each card requires a single action. TRADE means every gate passes; WAIT means a defined observation is still forming; SKIP means a disqualifier or expired opportunity. Confidence is not evidence.

The examination mixes tempting green candles, old or missing quotes, failed structure, spread spikes, complete valid setups and properly timed no-trades. The trainee must state a single action and the written clause for it. WAIT is not a substitute for refusing a disqualified event.

TRADE, WAIT and SKIP are separate decisions. Make a precise rule citation for each; the attractive outcome of a skipped event does not change its eligibility.

2. Worked example: loss before gain

Imagine a completed M15 breakout, but the last Ask quote is stale and current spread is unknown. A hypothetical long at the old Ask 1.1000 with a stop 1.0980 would carry 20 pips of planned downside, or −$20 at $1/pip. The real executable risk cannot be verified. Under a mandatory fresh-quote rule, answer SKIP, not a guessed TRADE. If only the candle is unfinished and no gate has failed, WAIT may be correct.

The original source's assessment scenario also illustrates: A closed M15 breakout is visible, but the last executable Ask has an old timestamp and spread is unavailable. SKIP until a fresh eligible event can be assessed; don't estimate market prices. Conversely, when a legitimate candle is still developing, WAIT for closure.

Original Black Box Journey examination teaching diagram. Imaginary data only.

3. Perform the assessment steps

1. Read the frozen strategy and account conditions first.
2. Inspect each card's chart timestamp, quote time and costs.
3. Choose exactly TRADE, WAIT or SKIP before the timer ends.
4. Cite the rule clause and one disqualifying fact if needed.
5. Lock the answer; review the outcome only after grading.

These tasks assess documented process, not a promised earnings result.

4. Proposed pass criteria (not yet activated)

Proposed pass standard, pending instructor approval: 10 timed, unseen decisions with at least eight correct, including at least three correctly justified SKIPs. Any critical oversized-risk or unprotected-entry approval requires remediation and retest. The 30-case source exercise remains practice, not the final exam.

WAIT cannot excuse a known violation, and SKIP cannot be marked wrong because the later market went in the desired direction. Separate timed reasoning from financial outcome. Every exam version needs a valid case mix and independently checked answer key.

Unsafe alternative to reject: A student selects TRADE just because the final chart eventually rose. Future outcome is hidden, and decisions are scored on evidence and safety rather than direction guessed.

5. Submit independently reviewable evidence

The original flight exercise asks you to: Classify thirty genuinely unseen event cards; record rule citations and confidence without treating confidence as proof.

Write your reasons while the future is hidden. An independent reviewer must be able to reproduce each risk decision from the saved evidence without guessing missing inputs.

6. Make a timed decision with incomplete information

Synthetic ten-scenario practice: A candidate EURUSD chart appears promising, but the last M15 candle has not closed. Mark WAIT, not TRADE. In another case, the qualifying candle closes, yet the executable spread is 2 pips against a one-pip rule. Mark SKIP. A third case meets chart and spread conditions but minimum order volume would risk $15 against a $10 limit. Mark SKIP again. A later profitable chart does not change either decision.

Suppose a permitted long at Ask 1.08520 has a structural Bid stop at 1.08420. Its 10-pip planned loss is −$10 at a fictional $1 per pip before commissions and adverse fills. You must check that figure while the timer is running, not after seeing whether the price rose.

Practical drill: Use ten unseen screenshots, each with a fixed decision window, and record TRADE, WAIT or SKIP plus the exact gate used. Include at least three genuine skip cases. An 8-of-10 practice target may be useful, but practical graduation criteria remain subject to instructor approval; the secure 30-question Captain knowledge exam is graded separately.

Common mistake

Treating the exam as a profit contest. A compliance error can be disqualifying even when the demo account grows. A valid rules-based loss is part of the expected evidence, not a reason to erase the record.

Plain-English glossary

• Timed decision: Choice recorded before a fixed deadline.
• Stale quote: Price observation too old for the written execution rule.
• Disqualifier: Condition that makes a candidate ineligible.
• Justified skip: Rejection linked to a predeclared rule.

Try it yourself

Classify thirty genuinely unseen event cards; record rule citations and confidence without treating confidence as proof. Save the original questions, submitted response, timestamps, complete results, reviewed mistakes and a proposed remediation plan.

What you can now do

• Make a timed trade, wait or skip decision and cite the exact rule without seeing later prices.
• Explain the proposed standard and which critical failures prevent passing.
• Defend one losing decision and one justified no-trade result.

Next lesson

CP06.3 · Execution and Risk Examination. Captain is a foundation milestone, not an end to learning.